Identifiability conditions for partially-observed Markov chains
Résumé
We consider parametric models of partially-observed bivariate Markov chains.
If the model is well-specified, we show under quite general conditions that the limiting normalized
log-likelihood is maximized only by parameters for which the stationary
distribution is the same as the one of the true parameter. This is a key
feature for obtaining the consistency
of the Maximum Likelihood Estimators (MLE), in cases where the parameter may
not be identifiable. The specific cases of Hidden Markov Models and Observation-driven time
series are investigated. In contrast with previous approaches, this result is
established by relying on the unicity of the invariant distribution of the
Markov chain associated to the complete data, regardless its rate of
convergence to the equilibrium.